Surprising expectations

[contextly_auto_sidebar id="fbeIBbYRw0ZKWWr19AyftxUi0pgewISN"]

---

It Is Fascinating to Read What the Department of Health Is Expecting From The PCEHR Program, writes Dr David More.

---

A little while ago I found this web page as I was checking the Health Department web site for news. From the review date this page is clearly very current. The section that really matters is the material I have quoted at the bottom of the page. Here is the introduction and the relevant content from the end.
eHealth
Reviewed: 13/01/2014
Overview
Electronic health (eHealth) is the combined use of electronic communication and information technology in the health sector. An eHealth record is an electronic health record that contains a summary of your health information.
Each time you visit your doctor, a hospital or other medical facilities such as imaging and radiology clinics, important information about your health is created and stored in separate files – which may be paper or electronic – at each of these locations. However, even if your health information is stored electronically on a computer at some or all of these places, many of these systems are not connected which makes it difficult to share your health information between your different healthcare professionals.
Much omitted.
Facts & figures

• The Australian Government’s PCEHR system was launched on 1 July 2012.


• The estimated net direct benefits of the national PCEHR system are expected to be approximately $11.5 billion over the 2010 - 2025 period. This comprises approximately $9.5 billion in net direct benefits to Australian governments and $2 billion in net direct benefits to the private sector (households, doctors, specialists, allied health clinics, private hospitals and private health insurance providers).


• The forecast reduced avoidable hospital admissions and doctor visits due to more effective medication management from 2010 - 2025 is approximately $10 billion.


• The forecast improved continuity of care benefit from 2010 - 2025 is approximately $11.5 billion.

Source: Department of Health and Ageing (Expected benefits of the national PCEHR system, Personally controlled electronic health records). The page is found here: www.mindhealthconnect.org.au/ehealth-record. (Note this is a web site sponsored by the DoH and run by Health Direct. In passing I must note the site looks very well done and is worth a visit to see where eMental Health is up to.) It is the facts and figures part that really caught my eye.
There are more details on the projections found at the link below. These are abstracted from a study undertaken by Deloittes in 2010 - 11. You will instantly note this was a good while before the PCEHR went live in its initial form in July 2012 so, of necessity is based on a theoretical PCEHR with theoretical usage and adoption. Here is the link:
www.yourhealth.gov.au/internet/yourhealth/publishing.nsf/Content/pcehr-benefits
I had seen these figures ages ago but had not picked up what they might mean - especially with the focus on and nature of the benefits being made so clear with the Department re-publishing them so recently and explicitly. Clearly the Government is hoping for a large payoff with some very small returns for the rest of the community.
A few points need to be made.

1. It seems the Government is wanting, and planning to collect, the vast majority of the planned benefits with very little left for everyone else. It is absolutely clear from this that the PCEHR is not a program designed to benefit patients and clinicians but to save money and provide management information for the Department of Health.


2. The start date of the study (2010) is before the PCEHR was a twinkle in anyone’s eye - so this is almost certainly information which was based largely in NEHTA’s IEHR which was very different to the PCEHR as it was finally delivered.


3. The PCEHR is really not a medication management system - although it may be a medication recording system. The impact of such a poorly used system - which accounts for a very large portion of the benefits - is unlikely to be credible.


4. The PCEHR as of 2014 is hardly a widely used system so it is likely these financial forecasts are way too optimistic.


5. Any study of financial benefits that runs over 15 years has to be intrinsically unreliable, and treated with considerable scepticism, given that Government forecasts for even the 4 year forward estimate period are often wrong by many billions. The claim that over the 15 year period, reduced avoidable hospital admissions and GP visits due to more effective medication management will save exactly $10.237 billion is genuinely astonishing!

---

“The PCEHR is really not a medication management system - although it may be a medication recording system. The impact of such a poorly used system - which accounts for a very large portion of the benefits - is unlikely to be credible.”

---

The bottom line here is that the PCEHR is a system being pushed on the public and clinicians largely for the benefit of the Government on the basis of amazingly rubbery and what are now virtually certainly obsolete adoption and figures.
What a farce and what a surprise the Department is still pushing this nonsense after the change of Government. That this article was reviewed after the Review of the PCEHR System was given to Government makes you wonder if there might be some news here regarding the recommendations.
Readers may be aware Minister Dutton said that the PCEHR Review “report provides a comprehensive plan for the future of electronic health records in Australia.” when announcing he had received the report. A poll on my blog indicated that only 12% of my expert readers found the claim credible so whatever the report tells us, when, if ever, released will be fascinating.
I do not expect a release before the May Budget but we can live in hope!
Dr David More is a Health IT consultant with more than 20 years’ experience in the e-Health area. His blog can be found at www.aushealthit.blogspot.com and covers all matters e-Health. He may be contacted via the links provided on the blog.